"Faux .500," a full analysis

With two days between Devils games, there is now time to digest their true winning perecentage, and why the term "Faux .500." What is .500 in the post lockout NHL? Fans and scribes are accustomed to looking at the numbers: 32 wins, 32 losses, and a number that follows, in the Devils case, 2. It sure looks like .500. 66 points accumulated out of a possible 132. Sure feels like .500 But the number 2 represents either an Overtime or shootout loss. Some might have a hard time granting a point to a team that loses, but acquiring a point after a tie in regulation does not offend the purists familiar with the game prior to the 1983 and the advent of Overtime. Hard to argue with a century of precedence, a point for a tie in regulation passes the smell test.

But something isn't right, awarding the same amount of points to a team for a hard fought win in regulation, as opposed to the team who coasts in the final minutes and then steals a "win" in a shootout. It is not equitable, by anyone's definition, especially when the losing team gets a point. Hence the imbalance of the "three-point games," which is under considerable scrutiny, or at least should be, with two high-stakes pennant races screaming down to the wire as you read this. I'll provide a solution to the current 2 and 3 point game disparity, but first let's debunk after the Devils record and their flirtation with .500.

Old School:
Yes, a point for a tie in regulation is legitimate. So let's maintain that old-school formula and examine those wins scored AFTER being tied in regulation. All those points acquired after the tie are in question. The Devils have acquired 10 points after tying in regulation, 7 OT winners, 3 by shootout. In the ancient but equitable old school formula we would discount all the points acquired after regulation, and the Devils record then becomes 22-32-14, still 10 games under .500, a winning percentage of .426. Wow, those stop-the-presses headlines and player quotes about making history aren't so relevant. However, this is not the old NHL, and on 7 occasions the Devils lit the lamp on real hockey plays (albeit 4 on 4) to gain seemingly legitimate victories. The insane celebrations in Atlanta on Friday and Newark on Saturday bore no resemblance to a tie; this reality is duly noted and logged.

No shootouts, OT's winner take all.
For sake of argument, let's call OT wins real victories, but award no point for an OT loss, and give a point to each team a point that reached the shootout. If we call those games ties, which is a legitimate argument, the Devils are 29-35-4, a semblance of legitimacy with a .456 winning percentage, but not a cause for delirium. Under this scenario, there are no 3 point games, but no shootouts to entertain the fans.

Now, the equitable 3-point solution (NHL, take note)
3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for a win in the extra session (keep the Shootout to keep the fans happy), 1 point for a loss in the extra session, 0 points for a loss in regulation. Even Steven. Every game is a 3 point game. Winning in regulation is a greater accomplishment than winning in a modified post-game. Two contenders will actually take chances in the closing minutes of a tie game, a reward for their risk. The only downside is the historical aspect, the inability to compare point totals from dynastic teams from different eras, but the current point totals are inflated anyway. Standings without secrets. 4 categories, a designated point total for each.

The Devils winning percentage under this equitable 4-category system: 22 regulation wins (66 pts); 10 extra-session wins (20 pts) 4 extra-sesson losses (4 pts) and 32 regulation losses. 90 points out of a possible 204. The calculator says: .441

So we now have 4 ways to assess the 2010-2011 Devils season statistically:

Current inflated system: .500

Old School (no points after regulation) .426

Shootouts as ties, no points for OT losses: .456

Equitable 3-points per game system: .441

This blog has no qualms with the .441 or .456. Adjusting the entire league standings will be a chore for the Elias Sports Bureau if they want the exercise, but the bottom line is that Devils are not a .500 team. More like .450. They have 10 extra-session wins, and 4 extra session losses, so they are a little higher in the standings than they deserve to be, yet, they are competing in the same circumstances as everyone else. Over the past month 6 of their games have gone into extra sessions, they have prevailed in all 6. Statistics be damned, this club performs in the clutch, and if they continue to do so, they will get their showdown with the NY Rangers on April 9. And that will be historic, no matter how you add the numbers.